Methodology

How SnowDayOdds works

Real weather goes in. Four simple school day probabilities come out.

1. Find your location

You search where you live. SnowDayOdds.com finds the local weather forecast for your area.

2. Check for winter weather

We use official National Weather Service forecast information as weather input. Our own model evaluates snow, ice, sleet, freezing rain, and other winter weather that could affect the school day.

3. Timing matters

Snow overnight or during the morning commute matters differently than snow arriving after school begins. We also consider temperature, ice, snow intensity, and wind when it makes winter conditions worse.

4. Calculate the odds

Our meteorologist-designed model independently estimates four local school-day outcomes: Snow Day, Delayed Start, Early Dismissal, and Normal School. These are not snowfall chances, percentages of nearby schools, or official district decisions.

The same normalized weather inputs and model version produce the same odds for the same forecast window. New official weather information may change later forecasts; a new check does not necessarily change the percentages.

When the model finds no qualifying winter-weather disruption signal for that forecast window, it can show 100% Normal School. This is not confirmation that your school is officially open.